Embracing the Black Swan

One of the early peaks in my Grounded keynote is where I am describing my reaction in 1979 to not seeing the Bahamas Islands where they should have been. I go on to describe this as a “black swan” event, something that is totally unexpected. I have a worksheet that I use for the attendees and at this point in the presentation, I ask them to jot a note that would represent a black swan event for them.

Now when I am speaking to a room of banking executives, it is not that difficult for them to recall a black swan event. On this day, I was at Tennessee Tech University speaking to about 100 college students. So even as I was telling them to think of a black swan event, I realized that they would probably not have anything to jot down on the worksheet.

Later at a faculty lunch, I was talking about that point in the presentation and that I knew that I needed a better example there of what a black swan event for students might be. One of the professors immediately said, “I know a great example, the option or even the need to change majors.” She went on to describe that this is one of the biggest sources of angst for college students.

They come to school with a specific plan, and they invest time and money in the field of study they have selected. But at some point, some of them will realize that they are not in the right field … for them. Sometimes the instructors and advisors can see it, sense it. But most students, shoot, most anybody, is not that willing to abandon something that they have spent many hours and thousands of dollars. This is known as the sunk cost fallacy; we are loathed to stop doing something that we have invested much in, regardless of how fruitless that continuing might be.

I commented that this was a perfect example, perhaps more so since I changed majors from chemistry to computer science. While I believe that I would have made a fine forensic chemist, following my father and brother in that field, I would not have achieved as much as computer science has taken me. Empowered with that excellent example, my next talk on a college campus will be better at the black swan moment in the presentation.

We must always be looking to improve, always look for ways we can get better. And we must be open to suggestions, you never know where your next excellent example or enhanced presentation tweak might come from!